Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +190 RAD -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -6.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -7.2 (-5.8) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -7.4 (-5.6) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -6.5 (-6.5) | 146.6 (+0.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -6.3 (-6.7) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UPST 78 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#342) | -2.1 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#334) | 0.73 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#333) | 0.85 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#327) | 0.548 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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