Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -1200 UPST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -15.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -11.4 (-1.4) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -11.9 (-1.9) | 149.2 (-1.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -11.9 (-1.9) | 149.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -12.0 (-2.0) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UPST 78 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 10-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#197) | -13.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | -2.64 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#145) | -3.15 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#126) | 0.389 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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