Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +155 RAD -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -3.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -3.0 (-4.0) | 140.9 (-13.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.6 (-4.4) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.4 (-4.6) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.3 (-4.7) | 140.2 (-13.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UPST 78 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#284) | -3.5 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#299) | -0.61 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#299) | -0.59 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#298) | 0.476 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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