Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -122 RAD +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -8.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -5.4 (-12.4) | 155.6 (-10.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -3.7 (-10.7) | 158.2 (-13.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -5.3 (-12.3) | 152.6 (-7.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -5.1 (-12.1) | 153.5 (-8.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UPST 78 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 80.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#207) | -7.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#217) | -2.36 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#241) | -3.21 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#197) | 0.401 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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