Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +120 RAD -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -2.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -3.1 (+12.1) | 138.6 (+8.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.2 (+11.2) | 135.7 (+11.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.8 (+11.8) | 136.9 (+10.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.7 (+11.7) | 138.1 (+8.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#297) | -2.2 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#325) | -0.14 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#325) | -0.06 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#314) | 0.491 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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