Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -278 MSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -5.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.4 (-8.4) | 143.3 (+6.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.4 (-8.4) | 143.2 (+6.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.7 (-8.7) | 143.3 (+6.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.4 (-8.4) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
| Jan 16, 2023 | PUR 64 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#8) | 20.2 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#9) | 3.47 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#10) | 4.42 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#10) | 0.636 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 2.16 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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