Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -350 MSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.8 (-0.8) | 139.0 (-10.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.4 (-1.4) | 138.9 (-9.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 138.8 (-9.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.1 (-2.1) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
| Jan 16, 2023 | PUR 64 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 22.0 (#3) | 14.9 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#1) | 1.68 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.64 (#2) | 2.40 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.685 (#1) | 0.574 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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