Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -450 MSU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.0 (+5.0) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.1 (+5.9) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.3 (+5.7) | 132.6 (+5.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -10.4 (+5.6) | 131.7 (+6.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 16, 2023 | PUR 64 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#8) | 9.6 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#1) | 2.11 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.86 (#1) | 2.53 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#3) | 0.601 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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