Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -600 MSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.1 (-5.1) | 147.7 (+6.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.1 (-5.1) | 148.3 (+5.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.6 (-5.6) | 147.9 (+6.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.9 (-4.9) | 149.3 (+4.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
| Jan 16, 2023 | PUR 64 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#3) | 15.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#1) | 1.64 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.48 (#1) | 2.34 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#1) | 0.569 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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