Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -3.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -2.5 (+1.5) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.5 (+1.5) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.5 (+0.5) | 132.3 (-5.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.7 (+0.7) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#64) | 16.3 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#29) | 3.87 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#36) | 5.86 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#29) | 0.644 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 11.8% |
Game Analysis
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