Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -165 PUR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -2.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.1 (+4.9) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.3 (+4.7) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.1 (+4.9) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.9 (+5.1) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
| Jan 16, 2023 | PUR 64 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#18) | 18.5 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#17) | 3.13 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#16) | 4.08 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#22) | 0.643 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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