Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -130 PRST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.7 (+13.3) | 136.2 (+16.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.2 (+12.8) | 138.3 (+14.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.2 (+12.8) | 139.8 (+13.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.6 (+13.4) | 137.3 (+15.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PRST 94 – 91 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | 1.3 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#196) | 0.39 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#164) | 0.34 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#196) | 0.519 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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