Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PRST -218 MTST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +9 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -2.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -2.5 (+6.5) | 138.7 (-21.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -2.1 (+6.9) | 138.2 (-21.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -2.5 (+6.5) | 136.6 (-19.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -2.2 (+6.8) | 135.6 (-18.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PRST 94 – 91 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | 1.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#126) | -0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#131) | 0.15 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#153) | 0.495 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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