Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -138 PRST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.2 (+3.8) | 146.0 (-7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.9 (+3.1) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.7 (+3.3) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.3 (+3.7) | 144.9 (-5.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PRST 94 – 91 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | -4.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#247) | -0.01 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#246) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#267) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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