Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PRST -150 MTST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +17 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -2.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -2.4 (+14.6) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -1.9 (+15.1) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -2.4 (+14.6) | 141.2 (-20.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -1.9 (+15.1) | 139.8 (-18.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PRST 94 – 91 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#218) | -0.77 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#200) | -0.63 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#249) | 0.460 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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