Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PRST -163 MTST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +3 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -4.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+45.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -2.6 (+0.4) | 141.2 (+43.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -2.0 (+1.0) | 139.7 (+45.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -2.2 (+0.8) | 141.7 (+43.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -2.6 (+0.4) | 141.6 (+43.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -4.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#158) | -0.41 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -0.53 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#166) | 0.466 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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