Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -170 PRST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -4.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.8 (-2.8) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.1 (-2.1) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.7 (-2.7) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.8 (-2.8) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PRST 94 – 91 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#177) | -2.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#246) | -0.31 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#216) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#266) | 0.472 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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