Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | KC +575 SDST -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +14 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -12.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -11.8 (-2.2) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.6 (-2.4) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -10.1 (-3.9) | 145.8 (-13.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -10.5 (-3.5) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | SDST 90 – 62 KC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SDST 70 – 65 KC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDST 65 – 64 KC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | KC 72 – 67 SDST |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SDST 75 – 66 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 7-9 |
| Home | 3-11 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L15 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -16.5 (#356) | -1.3 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#360) | -0.98 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.92 (#359) | -0.90 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#359) | 0.454 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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