Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | KC +163 SDST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.1 (+6.1) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -0.6 (+4.4) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.6 (+4.4) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -0.5 (+4.5) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SDST 73 – 59 KC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SDST 90 – 62 KC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SDST 70 – 65 KC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDST 65 – 64 KC |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SDST 75 – 66 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#249) | -0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#291) | -0.25 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#275) | -0.22 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#299) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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