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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–18 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
55 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.3 | 147.7 | 74% | 40–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.5 | 137.2 | 90% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 155.2 | 37% | 84–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 163.5 | 77% | 80–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 134.0 | 68% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.5 | 144.7 | 84% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 143.8 | 73% | 78–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 132.8 | 44% | 63–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 142.6 | 68% | 67–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 136.1 | 47% | 79–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 144.3 | 77% | 63–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 150.9 | 83% | 73–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.2 | 145.2 | 19% | 78–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 151.9 | 44% | 72–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 149.8 | 80% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 149.5 | 41% | 74–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 158.0 | 30% | 81–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 154.3 | 53% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 149.7 | 84% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 151.8 | 33% | 78–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 164.8 | 50% | 96–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 168.9 | 74% | 84–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.7 | 150.9 | 91% | 64–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 149.1 | 30% | 90–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 145.5 | 75% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 142.0 | 86% | 55–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 158.4 | 20% | 75–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 145.8 | 36% | 82–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 136.2 | 78% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 146.7 | 50% | 65–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 151.9 | 75% | 66–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 152.8 | 89% | 54–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 148.2 | 70% | 93–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.9 | 150.1 | 91% | 48–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 168.2 | 89% | 75–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.1 | 134.8 | 21% | 87–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 158.6 | 77% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 142.8 | 71% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 150.6 | 78% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 139.4 | 73% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 148.2 | 52% | 106–99 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 169.9 | 83% | 84–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 149.4 | 40% | 68–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 145.0 | 78% | 82–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 157.7 | 45% | 69–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.9 | 150.2 | 33% | 71–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.4 | 61% | 66–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 149.5 | 73% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 148.0 | 55% | 72–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 138.1 | 32% | 85–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 142.9 | 49% | 76–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 138.9 | 37% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.5 | 135.9 | 88% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 142.6 | 47% | 76–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 131.5 | 52% | 70–59 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.