Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WGA +210 LIP -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -6.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -6.2 (+12.2) | 154.5 (+7.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -5.2 (+11.2) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -4.5 (+10.5) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -4.8 (+10.8) | 153.4 (+8.6) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | LIP 76 – 67 WGA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LIP 86 – 67 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#310) | -0.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#292) | -0.07 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#303) | -0.17 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#284) | 0.540 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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