Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -6000 WGA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -21.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -14.8 (+4.2) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -15.8 (+3.2) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -18.2 (+0.8) | 141.3 (+11.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -18.4 (+0.6) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | WGA 84 – 78 LIP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LIP 76 – 67 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#79) | -11.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#116) | -2.20 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#89) | -3.09 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#98) | 0.403 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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