Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | WGA +700 LIP -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -14.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -11.8 (+2.8) | 141.3 (+1.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -12.2 (+3.2) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -11.9 (+2.9) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -12.0 (+3.0) | 143.5 (-0.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | WGA 84 – 78 LIP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LIP 86 – 67 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#333) | 5.7 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#340) | 0.31 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#337) | 0.75 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#339) | 0.514 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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