Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | WCU -105 MER -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MER -2.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.0 (+5.0) | 155.6 (-3.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.4 (+4.4) | 157.4 (-5.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.8 (+4.8) | 153.0 (-1.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.1 (+4.1) | 154.3 (-2.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WCU 85 – 82 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#254) | -0.5 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#262) | -0.12 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#272) | -0.21 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#202) | 0.531 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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