Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MER -470 WCU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MER -14.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -11.1 (+0.9) | 157.5 (+6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -13.0 (-1.0) | 154.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -13.2 (-1.2) | 156.4 (+7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -13.6 (-1.6) | 156.1 (+7.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WCU 85 – 82 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#133) | -8.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#124) | -1.42 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | -1.88 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#88) | 0.460 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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