Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MER -135 WCU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -4.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.0 (-7.0) | 152.2 (-2.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.6 (-6.6) | 152.9 (-2.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.2 (-7.2) | 152.1 (-2.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.5 (-6.5) | 152.2 (-2.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WCU 85 – 82 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#174) | -4.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#186) | -0.80 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#184) | -1.16 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#128) | 0.503 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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