Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WCU +165 MER -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MER -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.9 (+10.9) | 152.0 (+15.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.4 (+8.4) | 153.2 (+13.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.7 (+9.7) | 146.3 (+20.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.6 (+10.6) | 148.7 (+18.3) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#350) | -3.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.24 (#357) | -0.38 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#358) | -0.65 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#299) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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