Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MER -600 WCU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MER -11.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -10.1 (+1.9) | 150.1 (-0.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -7.3 (+4.7) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -9.9 (+2.1) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -9.5 (+2.5) | 148.6 (+1.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WCU 85 – 82 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -13.6 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#266) | -2.23 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#281) | -2.67 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#284) | 0.418 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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