Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -1100 MSST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +25 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -16.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.8 (+11.2) | 170.7 (+4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -13.8 (+11.2) | 175.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -14.8 (+10.2) | 169.4 (+5.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -14.3 (+10.7) | 168.2 (+6.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ALA 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#16) | 6.5 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#17) | 1.10 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#17) | 1.75 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#8) | 0.520 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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