I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Southeastern Conference · Coleman Coliseum · February 26, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -8.5 Home covered
O/U 174.5 Over
Money ALA -550 / MSST +380
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual ALA +38 184 Won
Massey ALA -9.0 (+29.0)
Massey Totals 171.7 (+12.3)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline ML ALA -9.5 (+28.5) 171.1 (+12.9) 78%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -8.8 (+29.2) 168.2 (+15.8) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML ALA -9.1 (+28.9) 170.1 (+13.9) 79%
Baseline Tuned ML ALA -9.7 (+28.3) 171.0 (+13.0) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 26, 2026 ALA 10075 MSST
Jan 14, 2026 ALA 9782 MSST
Jan 30, 2025 ALA 8884 MSST
Feb 4, 2024 ALA 9967 MSST
Jan 14, 2024 ALA 8274 MSST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA MSST
Overall 28-9 21-13
Conference 13-5 8-10
Home 12-3 10-5
Away 9-3 6-5
Neutral 7-3 5-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 90.7 79.5
Avg Pts Against 81.3 74.2
Massey 21.6 (#6) 15.7 (#30)
Bradley-Terry 4.01 (#4) 3.16 (#10)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.86 (#6) 3.82 (#14)
RPI 0.679 (#2) 0.620 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA MSST
FG% 48.4% 45.4%
3PT% 34.2% 31.7%
REB / G 43.8 38.4
OREB / G 13.4 13.1
AST / TO 1.25 1.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.4% 52.0%
TOV% 17.4% 15.3%
ORB% 36.2% 34.8%
FT Rate 30.0% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 13.3% 19.5%
DRB% 70.6% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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