Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +164 ALA -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -8.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.4 (-10.6) | 167.7 (+11.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.8 (-9.2) | 180.2 (-1.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.2 (-8.8) | 169.3 (+9.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.6 (-9.4) | 167.8 (+11.2) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ALA 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#88) | 19.1 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#77) | 3.04 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#76) | 4.29 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#82) | 0.640 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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