Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -205 CARK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +5 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -4.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.9 (-9.9) | 149.0 (+32.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.8 (-10.8) | 149.4 (+31.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.2 (-10.2) | 145.6 (+35.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.4 (-10.4) | 148.2 (+32.8) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | CARK 76 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#142) | -0.3 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#102) | -0.26 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#119) | -0.37 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#75) | 0.520 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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