Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +150 APSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -6.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -5.7 (-4.3) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.4 (-4.6) | 141.3 (+2.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.1 (-4.9) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.5 (-4.5) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | CARK 76 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#342) | -3.7 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#322) | -0.41 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#324) | -0.64 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#336) | 0.484 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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