Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -400 CARK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +23 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -12.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -9.9 (+13.1) | 143.8 (+21.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -9.5 (+13.5) | 142.6 (+22.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -9.5 (+13.5) | 142.4 (+22.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -9.6 (+13.4) | 143.2 (+21.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | CARK 76 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#230) | -12.2 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#234) | -1.98 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#241) | -2.36 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#216) | 0.392 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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