Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -650 CARK +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -7.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -5.6 (+17.4) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -7.0 (+16.0) | 142.7 (+14.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -6.6 (+16.4) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.9 (+17.1) | 141.5 (+15.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | CARK 76 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#289) | -12.4 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#262) | -2.87 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#263) | -3.41 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#256) | 0.370 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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