Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -105 APSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CARK -0.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.7 (-1.3) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.3 (-1.7) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.0 (-1.0) | 136.3 (+7.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.9 (-1.1) | 138.2 (+5.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | CARK 76 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-16 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#335) | -8.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#354) | -1.00 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#351) | -1.30 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.358 (#358) | 0.459 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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