Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -120 APSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -2.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -0.6 (+6.4) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -0.3 (+6.7) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -1.4 (+5.6) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -1.2 (+5.8) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#339) | -9.4 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#287) | -1.64 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#310) | -2.06 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#282) | 0.428 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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