Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | RICE +525 USF -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -12.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -9.1 (-9.9) | 160.4 (-29.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -11.5 (-7.5) | 156.2 (-25.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -10.2 (-8.8) | 158.4 (-27.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -11.2 (-7.8) | 159.1 (-28.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2025 | USF 69 – 64 RICE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | USF 69 – 65 RICE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | USF 81 – 73 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#249) | 10.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#242) | 1.50 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#253) | 2.20 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#265) | 0.584 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 15.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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