Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USF -225 RICE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USF -10.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -6.7 (+1.3) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -8.0 (-0.0) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -8.8 (-0.8) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -8.9 (-0.9) | 147.0 (+7.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USF 75 – 56 RICE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | USF 69 – 64 RICE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | USF 69 – 65 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | -1.44 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#167) | -1.65 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#194) | 0.439 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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