Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -380 INST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -9.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -10.2 (+0.8) | 143.3 (-22.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -7.9 (+3.1) | 146.1 (-25.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -9.4 (+1.6) | 141.2 (-20.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -10.1 (+0.9) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | INST 77 – 48 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#116) | -2.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#161) | -1.18 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#169) | -1.43 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#175) | 0.438 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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