Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | INST -292 SIU +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +29 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | INST -7.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.2 (+24.8) | 151.0 (-26.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.5 (+23.5) | 145.0 (-20.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.1 (+24.9) | 148.5 (-23.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -3.8 (+25.2) | 151.2 (-26.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#65) | 6.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#71) | 0.67 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#100) | 1.04 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#90) | 0.538 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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