Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | INST -145 SIU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.3 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.0 (+18.0) | 155.7 (+16.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -2.6 (+15.4) | 155.1 (+16.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.7 (+16.3) | 155.1 (+16.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.8 (+17.2) | 156.3 (+15.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | INST 77 – 48 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#218) | -1.3 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#211) | -0.17 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#210) | -0.16 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#233) | 0.507 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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