Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | INST +102 SIU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.4 (-13.6) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.5 (-14.5) | 146.0 (-1.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.0 (-14.0) | 141.0 (+4.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.1 (-13.9) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | INST 77 – 48 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | 2.9 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#252) | -0.27 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#251) | -0.31 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#245) | 0.501 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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