Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +163 INST -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | INST -4.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -2.8 (+7.8) | 149.5 (-6.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.5 (+8.5) | 149.8 (-6.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.3 (+9.3) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.0 (+9.0) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Nov 29, 2023 | INST 77 – 48 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#112) | 12.2 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#135) | 2.41 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#120) | 2.64 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#162) | 0.588 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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