Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -105 INST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +1 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -0.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.9 (+0.1) | 154.3 (+16.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.2 (+1.2) | 155.1 (+15.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.4 (+0.6) | 155.3 (+15.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.1 (+0.9) | 155.4 (+15.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | INST 77 – 48 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#192) | -2.7 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -0.34 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#185) | -0.43 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#183) | 0.475 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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