Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -380 TA&M +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -7.7 (+7.3) | 176.1 (+6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.0 (+6.0) | 171.2 (+11.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.2 (+6.8) | 169.9 (+13.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.7 (+8.3) | 171.7 (+11.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TA&M 62 – 56 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 86.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#14) | 15.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#21) | 2.37 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#20) | 3.12 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#15) | 0.563 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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