Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -380 ARK +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -6.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -7.4 (+0.6) | 139.1 (-9.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -7.9 (+0.1) | 137.1 (-7.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -7.4 (+0.6) | 137.2 (-7.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -7.0 (+1.0) | 138.3 (-8.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TA&M 62 – 56 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#18) | 14.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#6) | 2.24 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.38 (#8) | 3.00 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#7) | 0.560 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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