Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -120 ARK +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -1.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -0.7 (+5.3) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.1 (+6.1) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.6 (+6.6) | 137.6 (-9.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -0.6 (+5.4) | 135.3 (-7.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TA&M 62 – 56 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#31) | 13.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#27) | 1.99 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#30) | 2.46 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#36) | 0.592 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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