Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +105 TA&M -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -3.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -3.0 (+4.0) | 145.1 (+9.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -3.1 (+4.1) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -2.5 (+3.5) | 144.6 (+10.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -3.7 (+4.7) | 146.9 (+8.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TA&M 62 – 56 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#113) | 11.0 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#91) | 1.72 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#96) | 2.15 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#100) | 0.576 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 18.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 44.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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