Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -200 ARK +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +6 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -1.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -3.0 (+3.0) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -2.5 (+3.5) | 143.4 (-25.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -2.2 (+3.8) | 142.6 (-24.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -2.5 (+3.5) | 143.0 (-25.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#37) | 13.2 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#47) | 2.01 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#52) | 2.50 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#51) | 0.610 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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